The future trend of galvanized sheet coil

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From the seventh to the ninth day of the first lunar month in 2023, the steel market ushered in a brief start. The price of raw material steel billet in the spot market kept rising, and the futures opened on the first day after the Spring Festival showed an upward trend. On January 30, the average price of galvanized sheet coil 1.0mm in China was 5046 yuan/ton, which was 91 yuan/ton higher than before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the lowest price is 4950 yuan/ton, or even 5 yuan/ton lower than before the Spring Festival. Three weeks after the opening of the market, the price is still in the stage of pulling back and forth, without a more clear direction. But soon the price will usher in the "gold three silver four" test, the market can come as expected? This paper will make a brief analysis from the variety price difference, regional price difference, social inventory and market demand.

Since July 2022, the general trend of hot plating spread and cold plating spread is falling, the former is a phased decline, the latter is stable after the decline. During the plating heat price difference of the highest value is 1191 yuan/ton, the lowest value is 705 yuan/ton, high and low difference of 486 yuan/ton, and 705 yuan/ton this value is the lowest value in the past three years. From the plating heat price difference, the current price difference between the varieties is basically between 700-750 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the normal range of 800-900 yuan/ton. This means that hot - rolled coil will outperform galvanized coil during this round of price increases. Likewise, the former is becoming more supportive of the latter.

On the other hand, the spread of plating cold fell from July 2022 to October, and then began to remain stable. The highest value is 574 yuan/ton, and the lowest value is 293 yuan/ton, with a difference of 281 yuan/ton. In February this year to maintain at 300 yuan/ton or so, in the relatively normal range of price difference. Plating cold price difference is basically in a relatively normal stage, the recent fluctuations will not be too big. The hot plating price difference is in the continuous narrowing stage, and with the futures plate and steel mill order price rising, hot rolled coil for galvanized sheet coil price support will be more and more strong.

In the past three years, galvanized sheet coil prices in East China and South China and North China are mostly inverted. Especially in 2022, the last ten months are negative, with the maximum inverted range of 500 yuan/ton and 550 yuan/ton respectively. In contrast, the price difference between South China and East China is relatively normal, and most of the time is positive or no price difference.

As of February 20, 2023, the price difference is respectively upside down 150 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 120 yuan/ton, the two upside down repair trend is more obvious, from upside down 270 yuan/ton, upside down 230 yuan/ton repair to February. Normally, North China, as the main production area, sends most resources to East and South China, and a few resources stay in the local area, resulting in the degree of local resources is not as good as other places, which is the main reason for the high price. In eastern and southern China, where competition is higher than in production, prices are harder to firm. However, due to the consumption gap before and after the Spring Festival, there are more resources in all regions, leading to insufficient price support in North China, and the price gap between the two regions is gradually being repaired. However, it still takes some time to recover to the normal range, and with the gradual recovery of demand, it may be difficult to recover to the normal range when the inventory can continue to decline.

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